Before the fall of the Airbus A321, the satellite recorded a thermal flash. Airbus A321 crash: possible causes of the crash Airbus a321 crash
Until now, the picture of the crash looked too contradictory, which gave rise to a lot of rumors and unconfirmed versions that instantly spread in the media. Officially on this moment it is only confirmed that the plane began to fall apart while still in the air. This was announced by the head of the Federal Air Transport Agency Alexander Neradko. According to him, the wreckage of the aircraft scattered within a radius of 20 km.
All other data about the catastrophe that appeared earlier are now almost completely refuted. The statistics of such refutations of MK was presented by specialists of the International Consultative and Analytical Agency Flight Safety:
The information that the crew reported a problem on board, that they requested a landing in Cairo or at another nearby airfield was refuted by the Minister civil aviation Egypt, which on the evening of November 1 said that the Russian crew did not give distress signals and did not get in touch.
The information that the plane crashed, and two of its large parts - the fuselage and tail - are on the ground, was refuted by the video.
The information that the tail section was burned is also refuted by photographs and video.
Information that rescuers hear the groans of passengers inside crashed plane, refuted appearance debris - no one can survive with such destruction.
In the meantime, Sergey Melnichenko, director general of the International Consultative and Analytical Agency Flight Safety, told MK that Egypt has published information that contains a proposal to airlines not to use air space over North Sinai until the circumstances of the incident are clarified. So the wave of messages from carriers about the suspension of flights in this area is no longer their own initiative, announced earlier, allegedly in order to calm passengers.
According to Melnichenko, satellite photographs that have become available on the Internet, showing areas of debris fall, indicate that the dispersion of parts of the aircraft over an area of several kilometers really gives reason to believe that the disintegration of the A321 began in the air. It is possible that the front part of the aircraft, where the transponder and its antenna are located, flew a slightly greater distance than the first structural parts that separated from the aircraft - they were found along the route closer than the point where the mark from the transponder disappeared.
“The fact that the front of the aircraft lies in an inverted position,” says Sergey Melnichenko, “is explained by the laws of aerodynamics and the design of the aircraft. While the wings provide lift, the stabilizer located on the tail is responsible for the longitudinal stability of the aircraft. If we assume that the tail part for some reason separated in the air, then the nose of the aircraft will immediately go down, and the part remaining behind the wings up. So it remains to establish the reason for the separation of the tail section, and the main and accompanying reasons will become clear aviation accident. Hopefully, they will actually be found."
In this regard, the main hopes of all experts to establish the true causes of the disaster are now connected with the decoding of the "black boxes". However, experts from the Flight Safety Agency believe that “it is possible that the data obtained after decoding the recorders will not be enough to fully restore the picture of what happened. Let's remember how many hopes were associated with the decoding of the "black boxes" of the downed Malaysian Boeing, however, she only confirmed that the plane fell as a result of external influences.
Exactly one year ago, on October 31, 2015, there was the most massive air crash in Russia in terms of the number of victims. Then in the north of the Sinai Peninsula, the aircraft A321 Russian airline"Kogalymavia". There were 217 passengers on board, including 24 children, and seven crew members. They all died. The Russian authorities recognized the incident as a terrorist attack, but the international investigation has not yet been completed.
On October 31, the A321 aircraft of the Russian airline Kogalymavia was performing chartered flight from Sharm El Sheikh to Saint Petersburg. The liner took off at 5:50 am and after 23 minutes disappeared from the radar. On the same day, Egyptian government search teams found the wreckage of a wrecked aircraft near the city of Nekhel in the north of the Sinai Peninsula. All 224 people on board were killed, including 219 Russians, four citizens of Ukraine and one native of Belarus.
Causes of the A321 crash
The international investigation, led by the Egyptian aviation authorities, has not yet been completed. It is attended by representatives of Russia, France, Germany, Ireland and the United States.
Shortly after the crash, the Western media began to report that a terrorist attack could have occurred on board the A321, citing their sources in the special services and officials. From these publications it followed that the authorities of the United States and Great Britain considered the version of the terrorist attack the most probable. However, in Moscow long time publicly distanced herself from her, calling the version of the terrorist attack premature and urging to wait for the official results of the investigation. And only on November 6, it was decided to suspend air traffic with Egypt until the causes of the A321 crash were clarified and the Russians who were there were evacuated.
Officially, the terrorist act of the FSB took place over Sinai only two and a half weeks after the disaster, on November 17th. According to the agency, an improvised explosive device went off in flight. Vladimir Putin at a meeting of the Security Council to find the organizers of the crash "anywhere on the planet" and destroy them.
However, the Egyptian authorities, even after these statements, continued to insist that a technical malfunction was the most likely cause of the disaster. And only in February 2016, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi admitted that a terrorist attack had occurred on board the A321.
In September, the Kommersant newspaper, citing sources, reported that an international technical commission had established the exact location of the explosion on the plane. According to the publication, experts determined that the terrorists mined the oversized luggage compartment in the tail section of the aircraft, hiding an explosive device between baby carriages and wicker furniture carried by tourists.
Russia and the CIA believe that the explosion on board was organized by Wilayat Sinai (until 2014 - Ansar Beit al-Maqdis), a cell of the terrorist organization Islamic State (ISIS) banned in Russia. The group claimed responsibility for the downing of the A321: On November 18, 2015, the Islamic State propaganda magazine Dabiq published a photo of an improvised explosive device made from a can of Schweppes soda. As stated in the article, it was this device that was powered on board the A321. In August 2016, the Egyptian military about the assassination of the leader of Wilayat Sinai, Abu Duaa al-Ansari, who is suspected of organizing a terrorist attack.
Scandalous case
Relatives of those killed in the disaster have repeatedly complained about the progress of the investigation and the process of paying compensation. In December, lawyer Igor Trunov, on behalf of 35 relatives, filed a complaint with the Basmanny Court against the inaction of the head of the Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin. According to the lawyer, it was expressed in the fact that the UK ignored two appeals from relatives. In one of them, they asked to be informed of the number of the criminal case, to recognize them as victims and to acquaint them with the materials of the investigation. Another complaint concerned Ingosstrakh. The appeal alleged that the company fraudulently obtains applications from relatives of the victims that limit their right to apply to the courts in order to obtain compensation. Ingosstrakh itself categorically denied these accusations. And the lawsuit against Bastrykin was rejected.
Consequences
After the crash of the Kogalymavia plane, Russia suspended flights with Egypt, and tour operators were banned from working in this direction. All year they waited for the resumption of communication with the country, which for many years was one of the main resort destinations for Russians. According to the latest data, this can happen no earlier than December-January.
To resume flights, the Egyptian side must fulfill a number of airport security requirements (a complete list has not been officially published). During the year, Russia repeatedly sent its specialists to Egypt for checks at the airports of Cairo, Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada, but each time there were violations. According to the sources of the Al-Watan newspaper quoted by TASS, "a number of Russian structures refuse to discuss the issue of resuming air traffic with Egypt until the results of the official investigation appear."
With the closure of air traffic, Egypt suffered significant losses. From the collapse of tourism - one of the country's key industries (more than 11% of GDP until November 2015) - Egypt's budget, according to Reuters, lost more than three billion dollars.
The crash of the Russian Airbus and the subsequent cessation of flights to the Arab Republic led to problems for Kogalymavia itself and its associated tour operator Brisco, which was the customer of flight 9268. Since the spring of 2015, the case of declaring the carrier bankrupt has been dragging on, the next meeting will be held on November 10. In March, the Federal Air Transport Agency limited the operator's certificate to Kogalymavia and deprived it of permits for 13 international destinations.
The organizer of the flight, tour operator Brisco, suspended work on August 2 until it pays off debts to customers and agencies. As reported on the Brisco website, after the closure of flights to Egypt and Turkey, the company suffered "colossal financial and economic losses."
An American infrared satellite, before the fall of the Airbus A321 airliner, recorded a thermal flash exactly in the place where the plane crashed. /website/
According to American intelligence officers, the flash is evidence of a possible explosion on board the aircraft. It could have been a fuel tank, engine or bomb explosion. Due to the fact that at the time of the explosion, the satellite did not record a thermal trace from a possible missile located nearby, the Americans ruled out the version of external influence on the aircraft. “The version that the plane was shot down by a missile is now not being discussed,” US intelligence said.
Later, a Pentagon spokesman said that the heat flares may not have been related to the plane crash, but could be a reflection of hostilities with Islamists in the area.
The most likely cause of the crash is considered to be the carrying of an explosive device on board the aircraft, according to a report by the American analytical agency Stratfor. At the same time, CNN said that the remains of explosive substances on the wreckage of the liner have not yet been found. Earlier, US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper suggested the involvement of militants of the Islamic State terrorist organization in the plane crash.
However, Stratfor has ruled out such a version. “It is unlikely that the jihadists in the Sinai shot down the plane using portable anti-aircraft defense systems or MANPADS. While militants in the area managed to use MANPADS to shoot down an Egyptian helicopter and fire missiles at an Israeli aircraft, Flight 9268 was out of range of the weapon, analysts said.
Decryption of "black boxes"
The very first results of the decryption of these "black boxes" also showed that the aircraft was not subjected to external influences. Prior to his disappearance from radar, he also did not send SOS signals.
The report notes the unlikely possibility of electrical failure, as in this case, the pilots could maneuver and land the liner.
Airbus A321 of Kogalymavia airline, on flight 9268 from Sharm el-Sheikh, in the central part of the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. On board the airliner were 217 passengers and 7 crew members, all of them died.
The remains of the victims of the plane crash and their personal belongings were delivered by two special flights of the Ministry of Emergency Situations to the Pulkovo airport in St. Petersburg. Search work continues at the crash site.
MOSCOW, 31 October. /TASS-DOSIER/. On October 31, 2015, an Airbus A321 passenger plane of the Russian airline Kogalymavia (Metrojet brand, Metrojet), which was flying on the route Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt) - St. Petersburg, disappeared from radar 23 minutes after takeoff.
Since the start of operation of the Airbus A320 with aircraft of this type (including modifications of the A319 and A321), there have been 13 accidents (excluding the incident on October 31, 2015), which led to the death of 1,101 people on board.
On June 26, 1988, an Airbus A320-111 passenger aircraft of the airline crashed. Air France (registration number F-GFKC), performing a demonstration flight over Basel-Mulhouse-Freiburg Airport (France). Due to altimeter malfunctions and pilot error, while flying at low altitude, the car hit the tops of trees and fell into the forest. Three of the 136 passengers on board were killed.
On February 14, 1990, an Airbus A320-231 of Indian Airlines (registration number VT-EPN), flying 605 from Bombay (now Mumbai), crashed while landing at Bangalore Airport (India). The pilots did not notice that the plane was descending too fast until the landing gear hit the concrete fence of a golf club near the airport. The plane crashed near the runway. 92 people out of 146 on board were killed.
January 20, 1992 passenger liner Airbus A320-111 (registration F-GGED) French airlines Air Inter Flight 148 on the route Lyon - Strasbourg crashed into Mount Saint-Odile 19.5 km from Strasbourg Airport. 87 of the 96 people on board were killed. According to the results of the investigation, it turned out that the disaster occurred due to a number of factors, including the complexity of the onboard control system and adverse weather conditions.
On September 14, 1993, at Warsaw's Okęcie International Airport (now named after Frederic Chopin), a passenger plane A320-211 (registration number D-AIPN) of the German airline Lufthansa, flying 2904 from Frankfurt am Main, skidded off the runway . In conditions of strong wind and rain, the crew of the liner landed the car just 770 m from the end of the runway, the aircraft did not have time to slow down, crashed into fences and caught fire. One passenger and the captain-mentor died, the other 68 people on board were injured.
March 22, 1998 Airbus A320-214 passenger airliner (registration number RP-C3222) of the Philippine company Philippine Air Lines who performed domestic flight number 137 from Manila to Bacolod, failed to perform normal braking during landing. The reason was the error of the pilot, who turned off the reverse of one of the engines. The plane went off the runway and crashed into wooden houses outside the airport. None of the 130 people on board the plane died, but three people on the ground were killed.
On August 23, 2000, a passenger aircraft A320-212 (registration number A40-EK) of the Bahraini airline Gulf Air, operating flight 072 from Cairo to Manama (Bahrain), crashed into the waters Persian Gulf near international airport Bahrain on about. Muharraq. The accident occurred during a go-around after an unsuccessful approach to landing caused by pilot error. All passengers and crew members were killed - 143 people.
On May 3, 2006, an Airbus A320-211 passenger airliner (registration number EK-32009) of the Armenian company Armavia ("Armavia") crashed. The plane was making flight 967 from Yerevan to Sochi. When landing at the destination airport in difficult weather conditions, the crew received a go-around command. Performing a turn, the crew turned off the autopilot, after which the aircraft went into climb mode, lost speed and fell into the Black Sea. All 113 people on board were killed.
On July 17, 2007, an Airbus A320-233 (registration number PR-MBK) of the Brazilian airline TAM Airlines crashed while landing at Sao Paulo airport, en route to domestic flight 3054 from Porto Alegre. After landing, the plane was unable to slow down on the slippery runway, flew out of it, crashed into a hangar with aviation fuel and burned out. All 187 people on board and 12 others on the ground were killed. The cause of the disaster was that the thrust of one of the engines turned out to be in takeoff mode during landing. The commission could not establish whether this was a pilot error or a technical malfunction.
On May 30, 2008, an Airbus A320-233 passenger aircraft (registration number EI-TAF) of the Salvadoran company TACA International Airlines, flying flight 390 from San Salvador to Tegucigalpa (Honduras), while landing at the destination airport, skidded off the runway onto the city street and received significant damage. Three people on board and two in the vehicle on the ground were killed. Among the dead on the plane was Nicaraguan economist Harry Brautigam, president of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (BCIE), who died of a heart attack.
On November 27, 2008, an Airbus A320-232 (registration D-AXLA) of XL Airways Germany, performing technical flight number 888T near the French Perpignan-Rivalte airport, crashed into the sea near locality Canet-en-Roussillon. All seven people on board were killed. An investigation revealed that the crash was due to water ingress into the AoA sensors during maintenance. The failure of the sensors led to the loss of control over the aircraft by the crew.
On July 28, 2010, an Airbus Airblue Airbus A321-231 (registration number AP-BJB), operating domestic flight 202 on the Karachi-Islamabad route, crashed in northern Islamabad in heavy fog and monsoon rain. All 152 people on board were killed. The cause of the crash was weather and uncoordinated actions of the crew.
December 28, 2014 On December 28, 2014, an Indonesian AirAsia passenger Airbus A320-216 (registration PK-AXC), flying QZ8501 from Surabaya, Indonesia to Singapore, disappeared from radar while flying over the Java Sea in the area between the islands Kalimantan (Borneo) and Belitung (Indonesia). There were 155 passengers and seven crew members on board. On January 3, 2015, during a search operation, the wreckage of the liner was found on the seabed; from January to March, 106 bodies of the dead were found in the crash zone.
On March 24, 2015, an Airbus A320-211 passenger aircraft (registration number D-AIPX) of the Germanwings airline, operating a scheduled flight 4U 9525 / GWI18G on the route Barcelona (Spain) - Düsseldorf (Germany), crashed into a mountain slope and completely collapsed in the Alps Upper Provence (France). There were 144 passengers and 6 crew members on board, all of whom died. The crash was the result of the deliberate actions of the co-pilot of the liner, Andreas Lubitz (Andreas Lubitz).
On the morning of October 31, a plane crash occurred on the territory of the Sinai Peninsula, killing 224 people. 30 minutes after takeoff, the Airbus A321 airliner of the Kogalymavia company, flying from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg, disappeared from the radar. The plane began to rapidly lose altitude and, according to preliminary information, fell apart before falling.
The plane crash in the Sinai became the largest in terms of the number of victims in the history of Russian and Soviet aviation. Prior to this, the sad list was headed by the tragedy that occurred near Uchkuduk on July 10, 1985. Then the Tu-154 crash claimed the lives of 200 people.
What happened on Saturday Sinai Peninsula? While experts are dealing with the contents of the "black boxes" of the crashed liner, the first versions of what happened are already appearing.
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Engine failure
The most popular version is the failure of the aircraft engines. According to some reports, a few minutes before the crash, the pilots contacted the dispatchers and requested permission for an emergency landing due to the failure of one of the engines, according to others, there was nothing of the kind. Egyptian officials adhere to the second option: no one contacted the ground, the flight took place as normal.
The Egyptian press cites the words of one of local residents, who allegedly saw one of the turbines ignite in the air near the liner.
However, this version also has weaknesses. For the plane to crash, several engines had to fail at once. In other words, the failure of one engine could not lead to a plane crash.
Damage to an aircraft on another flight
The second version is that the plane was damaged in some other flight and they were simply not noticed in time. And if they noticed, then the plane was "patched" poorly. The crashed airliner was 18 years old, during such a period of operation during flights, emergency situations occurred more than once. So, 14 years ago, when landing in Cairo, the plane hit hard with its tail, after which it was under repair for a long time.
Air crashes that occurred due to poor-quality repairs or negligent inspection of aircraft are not the greatest rarity. So, on August 12, 1985, a Boeing 747 crash near Tokyo claimed the lives of 520 people. It turned out that the cause of the tragedy was a poorly carried out repair: the workers poorly welded the pressure bulkhead, which fell off during the flight along with the elevators.
The plane became practically uncontrollable, the pilots kept the liner in the air for another half an hour, managing to control the liner by reducing and increasing the engine thrust. However, the plane then crashed into a mountain.
According to an Egyptian technician who inspected the Airbus A321 before takeoff, it was in perfect working order.
The plane was shot down
The last of the most popular versions. The plane could have been shot down by militants of the Islamic State terrorist group banned in Russia. Currently, a bloody war is going on in the Sinai Peninsula between the troops of the Egyptian government and the Islamic State.
It is possible that the militants fired a rocket that shot down the plane. However, this version is opposed by the lack of appropriate funds from IS, because the liners fly at an altitude of about 9-10 thousand meters. It is possible to shoot down a liner only with the help of a missile system.
However, on the eve there was information that the plane did not have time to gain altitude, which means that it completely became a target for MANPADS. ISIS has already published a video showing a plane being shot down by a missile, but there are serious doubts about the authenticity of the recording.
Some conclusions can be drawn after the official investigation of the IAC and the decoding of the "black boxes". As part of the investigation into the crash of the Airbus A321, investigators seized documents on the maintenance of the vessel. In Samara, fuel samples were seized from the place of the last refueling of the aircraft, said the official representative of the TFR, Vladimir Markin.
"The Russian Investigative Committee will check all possible versions that could lead to the tragedy, including the technical malfunction of the aircraft," Markin said.
