Export goes to the sky. Civil aircraft industry in Russia began to develop and cause losses World civil aviation market
Aircraft industry implies the design and creation of a full-fledged aircraft and its components. A few and very expensive products are subsequently used for both civilian and military purposes.
There is no doubt that the most convenient way to travel is by plane. There is no need to speak about the importance of aircraft in the affairs of the country's defense. All this makes the aviation industry a priority and singles out the largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world in a special category.
Giants of the aircraft industry
In the aircraft industry today, almost all engineering products are used. In addition, all innovative scientific and technical processes find undoubted application in it. It is logical to assume that if the state is able to locate such an industrial complex on its territory, this means its financial solvency, the opportunity to show itself as a reliable business partner.
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The constant development of the industry involves the use of super-new information technologies (we are talking not only about the manufacture of aircraft, but also the components for them). From the economic point of view, this is, of course, certain and very serious financial investments. On the other hand, every state needs the aviation industry. This formulation of the question makes it necessary for such enterprises to receive assistance from the state.
Below is a list of the ten largest aircraft companies in the world. The Forbes rating was based on the market value of enterprises, which “placed” them in their places in the top 10.
| Place on the Forbes general list | Name of company | Location country | Market value for 2016, billion dollars |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolls-Royce Holdings | Great Britain | |||
| Great Britain | ||||
| Northrop Grumman | ||||
| General Dynamics | ||||
| Netherlands | ||||
| The Boeing Company |
10th Place: Starting with Rolls-Royce Holdings
A division of the company with a big name specializes in the production of engines for civil aviation. The organization has been operating in the aircraft industry since 1904. For more than a century of history, the corporation has earned worldwide recognition and the desire to cooperate with foreign customers. In this regard, Russia is not far behind: it is Rolls-Royce that offers to supply its engines for the future Russian-Chinese long-haul airliner.
The company employs 54,100 people. Annual revenue last year was $20.18 billion.
9th place: French company Thales
The 20.6 billion capital value of this company is deservedly due to the conscientious work that dates back to 1918. Today the organization is engaged in the release of information systems of aerospace significance. Among the company's products are components for military aviation, electronics for fighter jets.
The organization bears the name of Thales of Miletus, an ancient Greek philosopher. Offices are located in more than 50 countries of the world, and the total staff of all employees working in it reaches 68,000 people. Sales revenue for 2016 amounted to $16.5 billion.
8th place: British company BAE Systems plc
BAE Systems is essentially a British defense company that promotes its products in the aerospace industry. It works with foreign customers (mainly from the USA) through its subsidiary BAE Systems Inc. The division of British Aerospace (BAe) works directly with the aerospace environment.
The organization actively lobbies its interests in the former Soviet republics. For example, since 2001 it has owned 49% of the national Kazakh carrier Air Astana.
According to the latest data, the organization employs 88,200 people worldwide. The headquarters itself is located in London. Now about the financial component: in 2016, the corporation's revenue amounted to $24 billion.
7th place: French corporation Safran
Aerospace and aeronautical equipment are among the several focus areas of this French industrial conglomerate. The main focus is on commercial and military engines, as well as the restoration and repair of jet engine models. There is also a turbo direction - turboshaft engines for helicopters and turbines for rockets. In addition, other components for aircraft and engines are also manufactured.
In total, the company employs 57,495 people. Revenue for 2016 was $18.23 billion.
6th: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
This corporation was organized in 1994 and combined Northrop Corporation and Grumman Corporation. Aviation and space are not the only areas of its activity. As a technique for this, the company produces military fighters and even airships (Airlander 10).
Northrop Grumman Corporation received the equivalent of $24.51 billion in 2016 revenue. In total, this organization employs 67,000 people.
5th place: Raytheon
The top five starts with the American manufacturer, which receives more than 90% of its income from defense orders. The products are of a rather specific nature - these are radio-controlled missiles and guidance systems, components of space systems, guidance technologies.
The name Raytheon is interestingly translated - “Divine Ray”, which is associated with the initial production of ray tubes since 1922. In an enterprise related to aviation, Raytheon retrained already during the Second World War. The project was the development of protection against Japanese kamikaze attacks, which turned into large-scale production.
To date, Raytheon Corporation employs 63,000 people. Revenue for 2016 was $24.07 billion.
4th place: American General Dynamics
One of the giants in the production of military and aerospace technical arsenal is the fifth on the planet in terms of concluding contracts related to the supply of precisely aircraft for defense needs.
The organization is a supplier of the most powerful information systems, which include intercontinental missiles, satellite data processing systems and similar equipment. For a long time, General Dynamics collaborated with NASA.
In addition to aerospace products, the company is also engaged in the production of marine and combat systems. The leading role here lies in the development of information technology. In total, the organization employs 98,800 employees who provided revenue of $31.35 billion in 2016.
3rd: Bronze Dutchman Airbus Group (former EADS)
The organization today is better known under the name Airbus Group. It is the largest aerospace corporation in Europe, headquartered not only in the Dutch capital, but also in Paris and Ottobrunn.
The company is relatively young, formed by the merger of other large specialized organizations in 2000. The renaming of EADS to Airbus Group happened only in 2013. At the same time, the management announced a restructuring, after which three divisions are expected: Airbus will be engaged in the direction of commercial aircraft construction, Airbus Helicopters will specialize in the production of helicopters, and Airbus Defense & Space will become a site for the production of military and space equipment.
The company's revenue for 2016 amounted to $73.7 billion. 133,000 people work for the benefit of the Airbus Group.
2nd Place: Lockheed Martin Silver Medalist
Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global company that specializes in the defense and space market segment. Notable production examples include fighter-bombers (5th generation F-35) and F-22 class fighter models.
The main client of the company is the native American government, which brings in approximately 82% of the revenue. The rest is provided by international contracts (work under the arms sales program). The number of commercial orders is only 1% of revenue. The company's full profit for 2016 is $79.9 billion.
In total, this organization employs 97,000 people. The headquarters is located in the US state of Maryland, in the city of Bethesda.
1st place: the undisputed leader of Boeing
This world's largest manufacturer is headquartered in Chicago. Specialization - production of aviation, military and even space technology. The military arsenal is handled by the Boeing Integrated Defense Systems division, while the civilian direction is under the wing of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
In addition, one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world produces a wide range of military equipment (which includes helicopters) and participates in large-scale space programs (an example is CST-100, a spacecraft).
The capitalization of the company is 108.9 billion dollars, and the revenue for the past year is 94.6 billion dollars. Today, this structure employs 150,500 people. Factories operate in 67 countries of the world, and the delivery of goods goes to 145 countries. And that's not all the numbers: more than 5200 suppliers from 100 countries are partners of the organization.
Features of the aircraft industry
Initially, the aircraft industry was formed as an industry of a military nature. The issue of civilian objects began to be thought about later. This made the aircraft industry monetized and gave certain specific features:
- The production of military products is determined by the military orders of their own state and the possibilities of export world supplies.
- The production of civil aircraft depends entirely on the receipt of national and world orders. Naturally, these figures can fluctuate greatly depending on demand.
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A separate issue concerns the cost of production itself. It may surprise you that back in the mid-1990s, it was estimated at 4 times less than the automobile one, that is, at only $250 billion. Everything is explained simply: aircraft cannot be called a mass commodity, this is a piece production. The annual production of civil aviation facilities hardly exceeds 1,000 pieces, while the figures for the military structure can be even lower, only 600 pieces per year.
The situation is somewhat saved by the well-established production of so-called light aircraft. The great demand for them is also due to an affordable price - from 20 to 80 thousand dollars. Most often, such products are used for educational, sports or business purposes.
The high science intensity of the whole process is also of great importance. Usually, the development of any aircraft (both military and civilian) can take from 5 to 10 years. High prices for the design and creation of aircraft facilities are so great that few firms in the world can afford such activities:
Position in the Russian market
The leader of the domestic aircraft industry is the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC). It was established in 2006 and united all previously existing aircraft design organizations in the country.
The corporation's revenue is 295 billion rubles. During the work, more than 200 aircraft were delivered. In recent years, special emphasis has been placed on the development of the short-haul line Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100). In 2016 alone, 34 deliveries of this aircraft model took place. To date, more than 50 such machines are in operation, and 13 of them are used outside of Russia.
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Another promising direction of the UAC is the medium-haul airliners of the new generation of the MC21 brand, the first flight tests of which took place last year. There is a demand for them: immediately after the tests, 175 orders and applications for the manufacture of such equipment were received. The UAC plans to produce 72 such airliners a year.
The Russian aviation industry is starting the biggest reform since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was created. Now we are talking about the unification of the KLA, the Irkut corporation and the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft company into a single structure that will deal with all the UAC's civilian programs. It will also become the head division of the entire corporation.
This means that the UAC considers the civil aircraft industry to be the key direction. On the one hand, in the face of a reduction in the state defense order, the inevitability of which has been repeatedly announced at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers do not have to choose. On the other hand, if Russia's authority in the field of military aviation is not disputed by anyone, then in the civil aircraft market our country falls into the category of outsiders.
Which is quite fair, considering that only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia last year. For comparison, market leaders Boeing and Airbus produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.
A logical question arises - what can the KLA expect in the current situation?
big pie
According to the forecast presented by the United Aircraft Corporation at the July MAKS-2017 air show, global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will amount to 41,800 aircraft with a total cost of nearly 6 trillion dollars.
At the same time, narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats will be in greatest demand among airlines, which will account for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, UAC is developing the MC-21 program.
About 4.6 thousand units (11% of the total) of new jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats will be sold by 2036. This segment in UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.
The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 seats or more will be about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, UAC is developing the Il-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will be 7450 aircraft. For this segment, UAC, together with the China Civil Aviation Corporation COMAS, plans to develop and produce a wide-body long-range aircraft of a new generation. A joint venture was opened in Shanghai this year to manage the program.
That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to respond to market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.
Three gray horses
To begin with, only the Sukhoi Superjet is really present on the market today. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century break. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially justified.
Pilots who have piloted the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better economy) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, the presence of many minor malfunctions is recognized, which, however, do not affect flight safety. The main complaint of the professionals is related to the very poor service support, due to which the planes stand idle for a long time without spare parts.
Passengers have more complaints - there is poor noise and vibration isolation ("I sat in seat 7F by the engine and received free vibration massage - very strong noise and vibration"), as well as small and low windows.
Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ Patriot car: a good transport for passengers without any special claims. It is noteworthy that the Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet purchased 30 SSJ 100) nicknamed the "Superjet" a tank.
It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To reach profitability, UAC needs to sell at least 300 aircraft, but three times less has been sold so far. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.
For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer produced 225 aircraft last year: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - competitors of the Superjet. It is not surprising that UAC President Yuri Slyusar recently announced that he was abandoning large volumes of SSJ production: the corporation plans to produce 30-40 Superjets per year, but is not going to "scale this project to large volumes."
Now the main hope of the UAC was the MS-21 project. This aircraft is close in characteristics to today's segment leader, the Canadian Bombardier CS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian one was built according to the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (although in the future it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MS-21). Economical engines and a lightweight body allow the Bombardier CS300 and MC-21 to save up to 20% of fuel compared to Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, the MS-21 is more spacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats (the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.
Il-114 is an aircraft from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after. V. P. Chkalov. A total of ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are part of the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 with Russian TV7-117ST engines at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total production volume, including civilian and special versions, may reach 100 vehicles. The first flight of the updated Il-114 should be made in 2018.
Aeroflot vs the Ministry of Industry and Trade
The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their marketing. It is already clear that the Superjet will not reach the output of 300 aircraft required to pay off the project. MS-21 at the current level of investment will pay off after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced IL-114 has the greatest chance of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.
Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will be a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will take up all this volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed to abolish privileges for the import of foreign aircraft, which "will establish customs and tariff protection for the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - SSJ 100 extended version and MS-21-300."
This innovation was actively opposed by Aeroflot, whose fleet is to receive 31(!) foreign aircraft in 2018. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov stating that if the preferential regime is suspended, additional costs for the import of aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce the plan for purchasing aircraft "both foreign and Russian-made", which will not allow expanding the route network, "including regional and socially significant routes."
Photo: Portal Moscow 24/Lidia Shironina
Unreal export
If even the main Russian airline is not eager to refuse to import aircraft in order to support the Superjet and MS-21, then what can we say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.
Firstly, the Irkut corporation, the manufacturer of the MS-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighters. The first civil aircraft produced by the corporation, the airlines will meet with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when Aeroflot has gained experience in operating the MS-21 (which will have to acquire new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).
Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and refinement, the average period of which is about 15 years. And not a single serious airline will order large batches of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even then, new manufacturers like Irkut can only count on orders from smaller carriers that don't have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.
Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-haul aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all global manufacturers.
Thus, for at least the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned and unprofitable industry, living largely on budget subsidies. Under these conditions, it is very likely that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for another optimization of the aviation industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.
The global civil aircraft market is 90% “captured” by the American company Boeing and the European manufacturer Airbus. However, it seems that the hegemony of these companies will soon come to an end. Who is able to oust these titans? Which companies and countries are going to get involved in the fight?
The civil aircraft market is a global growth market without national borders and at the same time is characterized by fierce competition from national manufacturers. Difficult technological challenges and high costs mean that only a small number of countries and a few large companies operate in the aircraft industry. Thus, in the market of aircraft manufacturers, competition is oligopolistic in nature, i.e. dominated by a few large international companies that have the strongest influence on the entire market.
The leaders of the civil aviation industry in recent decades have been Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EC), occupying more than 90% of the global passenger aircraft market, but the technological development of the industry and the emerging demand patterns in the coming years will lead to the destruction of the already familiar duopoly of Western aircraft manufacturing giants. In this paper, we deliberately do not include in the analysis the plight of the domestic aviation industry, which was the subject of another article by the author (Tolkachev S.A. The new look of the domestic aviation industry / / Capital of the Country, 09/01/2010.), in order to consider in its purest form the hard the world market of civil airliners, where Russia has a place in the backyard after the inglorious surrender of positions (in fact, as in the First World War) as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the socialist bloc in 1989-1991. One of the forms of indemnity for the alleged “defeat” of the USSR in the Cold War with the West was the surrender to the “winners” of the gigantic civil aircraft market, estimated at that time at 40% of the world. As it will become clear from the further presentation, only on this “democratic” Russia, as the successor of the USSR, lost at least 1 trillion rubles in 20 years. dollars (!) or the total cost of oil exports for the same period. Therefore, to seriously approach the analysis of the world market for airliners with the participation of fragments of the mighty Soviet aircraft industry, which today is timidly knocking on the door either with unfinished late Soviet developments (Tu-204, Tu-334, An-148), or with generic Western models (Sukhoi Superjet 100, MS-21), just do not want to.
1. The main segments of the civil airliner market
All civil aircraft produced in the world intended for the mass transportation of passengers are divided into the following segments depending on the type of fuselage and flight range:
1) medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft:
The fuselage diameter is from 5 to 6 meters. Aircraft with two aisles between the seats in the cabin. There are usually 7 to 10 passenger seats in a row. For comparison, narrow-body aircraft usually have a fuselage diameter of 3-4 meters. In the passenger cabin of a wide-body aircraft, the seats are arranged in 3-5 rows. On average, a wide-body aircraft can take on board 300-500 people.
The following wide-body aircraft are currently in operation (Table 1):
Table 1. Major wide-body aircraft in service.
| aircraft type | years of release | number of passengers | maximum range | total issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A 300 | 1972-2007 | 270 | 7 000 | 561 |
| A 310 | 1982-1997 | 205-280 | 9 000 | 255 |
| IL-86 | 1980-1997 | 350 | 4 600 | 106 |
| MD-11 | 1988-2000 | 298-410 | 13 400 | 200 |
| In 747 | 1969-nv | 366-524 | 14 800 | 1 419 |
| In 767 | 1982-nv | 180-375 | 11 300 | 1 000 |
| A 340 | 1991-nv | 261-475 | 16 700 | 374 |
| IL-96 | 1993-nv | 300-436 | 12 000 | 29 |
| A 330 | 1994-nv | 255-295 | 13 000 | 671 |
| In 777 | 1994-nv | 301-451 | 17 500 | 901 |
| A 380 | 2007-nv | 525-963 | 15 400 | 60 |
| In 787 | 2009-nv | 210-350 | 16 300 | 7 |
| A 350 (project) | ---- | 270-412 | 15 700 | ----- |
2) medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft:
The fuselage diameter is up to 4 meters. Compared to wide-body aircraft, narrow-body aircraft take on a much smaller number of passengers and, as a rule, have a shorter flight range. The maximum passenger capacity is 289 people.
Narrow-body aircraft in particular include (Table 2):
- Airbus A320 is the most massive European passenger jet aircraft.
- The Boeing 737 is the most massive passenger jet in the world.
- IL-62 is a narrow-body aircraft with the longest flight range.
- Tu-154 - the most massive Soviet passenger jet aircraft,
Table 2. Major narrow-body aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Release years | Passengers | Maximum range | Total Issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caravelle | 1959-2005 | 104-130 | 1 800 | 285 |
| IL-62 | 1966-2010 | 186 | 11 000 | 277 |
| Tu-154 | 1968-2011 | 150-180 | 3 500 | 1 020 |
| Yak-42 (142) | 1977-2002 | 100-120 | 4 000 | 188 |
| MD-80 | 1980-1998 | 140-172 | 4 500 | 1 191 |
| In 757 | 1982-2004 | 200-280 | 7 200 | 1 050 |
| B 717 (MD95) | 1998-2006 | 98-106 | 3 800 | 156 |
| In 737 | 1968-nv | 85-215 | 6 000 | 6 285 |
| A 320 (318/319) | 1987-nv | 107-220 | 6 500 | 4 181 |
| Tu-204 | 1990-nv | 164-212 | 7 500 | 66 |
| Tu-334 | 2000-nv | 102-138 | 4 100 | 5 (test) |
| Embraer ERJ 195X | 2006-nv | 106-118 | 3 990 | n/a |
| Bombardier CSeries | plan 2013 | 100-150 | 5 500 | --- |
| MS-21 (project) | plan 2016 | 150-212 | 5 500 | --- |
| COMAC С919 (project) | plan 2014 | 168-190 | n/a | --- |
3) regional jets:
Regional aircraft include even smaller aircraft. They carry up to 100 passengers over distances of up to 2-3 thousand kilometers. These aircraft can be equipped with both turboprop and turbojet engines. These aircraft include aircraft of the ERJ, CRJ, ATR, Dash-8 and SAAB families (Table 3).
Table 3. Main types of regional aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Release years | Passengers | Maximum range | Total Issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| An-24 | 1962-1979 | 48 | 1 000 | 1367 |
| Yak-40 | 1966-1981 | 27-36 | 1 300 | 1013 |
| BAe 146/Avro RJ | 1987-2003 | 85-100 | 2 000 | 387 |
| Fokker 100 | 1986-1997 | 85-119 | 3 100 | 238 |
| An-28 (An-38) | 1969-nv | 18-27 | 900 | 191 |
| Bombardier DHC-8 (series) | 1984-nv | 37-78 | 2 500 | 844 for 2008 |
| ATR 42 | 1984-nv | 40-50 | 1 500 | 390 |
| ATR 72 | 1989-nv | 50-75 | 1 300 | 408 |
| Bombardier CRJ (series) | 1991-nv | 50-100 | 3 800 | 533 |
| Embraer ERJ 145 (series) | 1999-nv | 35-50 | 3 000 | 1000 for 2007 |
| An-140 | 1999-nv | 52 | 2 400 | 12 |
| IL-114 | 2001-nv | 64 | 1 500 | 16 |
| Embraer E-Jet (series) | 2002-nv | 78-100 | 4 600 | 660 |
| Sukhoi Superjet 100 | 2008-nv | 68-98 (130) | 4 500 | 8 |
| An-148 (158) | 2009-nv | 70-99 | 6 200 | 13 |
| ARJ21 (China) | 2008 | 70-100 | 3 700 | 1 (experience) |
| MitsubishiRegionalJet (project) | 2014 plan | 70-90 | 3 000 | --- |
| Tu-324 (414) project | no data | 52-76 | 3 500 | --- |
4) local planes:
The smallest class of passenger aircraft are local aircraft designed to carry a small number of passengers (from 20) over distances up to 1000 kilometers. They are most often equipped with turboprop or piston engines. The most common aircraft of this class are produced by Cessna and Beechcraft.
For a better understanding, we present a comparative table 4, which includes all segments of civil airliners.
Table 4. Segments of the passenger aircraft market and their predicted capacity (in kind and value) for the period 2005-2024
2. The main companies participating in the civil airliner market
The passenger aircraft market has historically been dominated by American and European manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are the largest civil aircraft manufacturers in the world.
Airbus S.A.S. (pronounced Airbus) - one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies, produces passenger, cargo and military transport aircraft of the same name. The company headquarters is located in Toulouse, France. In 2001, according to French law, it was merged into a joint-stock company or "S.A.S." (French Société par Actions Simplifiée - simplified joint stock company). Airbus' sole shareholder is EADS. Airbus employs about 50 thousand people and is concentrated mainly in four European countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain. The final assembly of products is carried out at the company's factories in the cities of Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany).
Airbus' civil aircraft lineup began with the twin-engine A300. A shortened version of the A300 is known as the A310. Building on the lack of success of the A300, Airbus began developing the A320 project with an innovative fly-by-wire control system. The A320 was a big commercial success for the company. The A318 and A319 are shortened versions of the A320 offered by Airbus for the corporate jet market (AirbusCorporateJet) with some modifications. A stretched version of the A320 is known as the A321 and competes with later Boeing 737s.
Inspired by the success of the A320 family, Airbus decided to develop a family of even larger airliners. This is how the twin-engine A330 and the four-engine A340 were born. One of the key features of the new aircraft is the new wing design, which has a large relative thickness, which increases its structural efficiency and internal fuel volumes. The Airbus A340-500 has a range of 16,700 kilometers, the second longest-range commercial jet after the Boeing 777-200LR (17,446 km).
The company is particularly proud of its own fly-by-wire technology, unified cockpit and on-board systems used in all aircraft families of its own design; they make crew training and retraining to new models much easier.
The latest development of the company A350XWB is designed to compete with Boeing's new model - 787.
The Boeing Company- one of the world's largest manufacturers of aviation, space and military equipment.
The headquarters is located in Chicago (Illinois, USA).
The main production facilities of the company are located in the cities of Everett (Washington), California, St. Louis (Missouri).
The company produces a wide range of civil and military aviation equipment, being, along with Airbus, the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. In addition, Boeing produces a wide range of military aerospace equipment (including helicopters), conducts large-scale space programs (for example, the CST-100 spacecraft).
The company's factories are located in 67 countries around the world. The company supplies its products to 145 countries of the world. Boeing works with more than 5,200 suppliers in 100 countries.
In 2001, a division of Boeing International was formed, which controls the company's work in 70 countries of the world, except for the US market, where it is responsible for the development and implementation of the company's global development strategy. It determines and evaluates the competitive advantages and opportunities in the host country for the development of intellectual resources and technologies, the development of partnerships and business.
3. Comparative characteristics of the release of Airbus and Boeing
The companies operate mainly in the segments of narrow-body and wide-body short- and medium-haul aircraft.
Below is a comparative description of the release of certain aircraft models by year.
- ? B-737 and A320. Medium-capacity aircraft for medium-haul airlines, each type has many modifications. In recent years, A320s have been sold in larger volumes than Boeing products.
Table 5. Deliveries of AirbusA320 and Boeing 737 for 1988-2010
| 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 401 | 402 | 386 | 367 | 339 | 289 | 233 | 232 | 236 | 257 | 241 |
| B-737 | 398 | 372 | 290 | 330 | 302 | 212 | 202 | 173 | 223 | 299 | 281 |
| 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 222 | 168 | 127 | 72 | 56 | 64 | 71 | 111 | 119 | 58 | 58 | 16 |
| B-737 | 320 | 281 | 135 | 76 | 89 | 121 | 152 | 218 | 215 | 174 | 146 | 165 |
- B-747 and A380. Large capacity aircraft for medium and long haul airlines. Asian airlines, traditional users of the 747, are the main customers of the A380. Currently, B-747s are produced in quantities of no more than 10 pieces per year, there are very few new orders for passenger cars (out of 99 B-747s ordered since the beginning of 2006, only 27 are passenger ones). At the same time, the A380 order book has increased by 60 passenger liners since the beginning of 2006.
- B-767 and A330. The Airbus aircraft has proved commercially more successful in recent years.
Table 6. Deliveries of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 aircraft in 1994-2009
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A330 | 78 | 72 | 68 | 62 | 56 | 47 | 31 | 42 | 35 | 43 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 30 | 9 |
| B-767 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 40 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 41 |
- B-777 and A340. Both aircraft appeared at the same time, but due to the greater fuel efficiency of the B-777 and a number of other factors, the American company sold twice as many aircraft as their European competitors.
Table 7. Deliveries of Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 for 1993-2009
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B-777 | 88 | 61 | 75 | 65 | 40 | 36 | 39 | 47 | 61 | 55 | 83 | 74 | 59 | 32 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| A-340 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 33 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 24 | 33 | 28 | 19 | 25 | 22 |
There are very few new orders for the A340. It is assumed that the A350 will compete with the B-777, but the development of the latter is still very far from complete.
Embraer (Empresa Brasileirade Aeronautica) is a Brazilian aircraft manufacturing company, one of the leaders in the global market for passenger regional aircraft. Headquartered in Sao José dos Campos, State of Sao Paulo.
Founded in 1969 as a government controlled company. In the 1990s, it faced a serious crisis, after which it was completely privatized in 1994 (the state had only a “golden share”, which gives it the right to veto in the supply of military aircraft).
The company specializes in regional liners and produces commercial, corporate, military, agricultural aircraft. Production facilities are concentrated in Brazil.
By 2010, the company shared third or fourth place with the Canadian Bombardier among the largest suppliers of commercial airliners, behind Boeing and Airbus. In 2009, the company delivered more than 240 aircraft to commercial customers.
The number of personnel is 17 thousand people (2005).
Embraer Jet - a family of twin-engine narrow-body medium-range passenger aircraft manufactured by the Brazilian company Embraer. Includes 4 modifications: E-170, E-175, E-190 and E-195. The E-Jet was first presented at the Le Bourget Air Show in 1999. Serial production began in 2002.
Table 8. Deliveries of Embraer E-jet 190, 195 aircraft in total for 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 37 | 32 | 52 | 33 | 23 |
bombardier inc. (Bombardier), a Canadian engineering company. The headquarters is located in Montreal, Quebec.
The company was founded in Valcourt (Quebec) in 1942 under the name L´Auto-NeigeBombardierLimitée by Joseph-Armand Bombardier. The company has been engaged in aircraft construction since the mid-1980s. In 2003, the company sold its snowmobile, all-terrain vehicle, jet ski, powerboat division to Bombardier Recreational Products, concentrating on rail and aircraft engineering.
The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of business jets, regional aircraft, as well as railway equipment and trams. The main divisions of the company are the world's largest manufacturer of railway equipment Bombardier Transportation and Bombardier Aerospace, the world's third largest manufacturer of civil aircraft after Boeing and Airbus. In 2008, Bombardier employed 59.8 thousand people.
Bombardier Canadair RegionalJet (CRJ) is a family of regional passenger jet narrow-body aircraft. The aircraft made its first flight on May 10, 1991. The CRJ-100 became the first aircraft of the modern level among the 50-seat aircraft. In terms of speed, the aircraft can be compared with larger machines, while its efficiency is quite consistent with the class. The family consists of several modifications that differ in fuselage length and flight range: CRJ100, CRJ 200, CRJ 700, CRJ 900.
The CRJ 900 model is designed to carry 88 passengers. The Bombardier CRJ 900 made its first flight on February 21, 2001. In addition to the standard, there are several more versions of the aircraft - elongated and for long-distance flights.
The Bombardier CRJ 1000 program was launched by Bombardier Aerospace on February 19, 2007. First flown in September 2008, the 100-seat CRJ1000 is the latest model in the Canadian Regional Jet family.
Table 9. Deliveries of Bombardier CRJ 900, 1000 aircraft in 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 48 | 78 | 92 | 82 | 87 |
4. Growth forecasts for the global civil airliner market
According to Airbus forecasts, in the next 20 years, airlines around the world will buy almost 25,000 new long-haul aircraft for a total of 2.9 trillion. dollars. Of these, about 10,000 will be required to replace the aging fleet, and another 15,000 will be needed to further increase the carrying capacity. Moreover, it is narrow-body airliners that will be in the greatest demand. They will be sold about 18 thousand for 1.27 trillion. dollars, which will be 70% of the total volume of all deliveries in physical terms. As a result, by 2030 the global airline fleet will almost double and exceed 30,000 aircraft. High demand for new aircraft is driven by the growing need to replace airliners with low fuel efficiency, as well as the dynamic development of new markets and the growth of passenger traffic on existing routes.
Boeing predicts that the new civil aircraft market will be worth $3.6 trillion over the next 20 years. dollars Market growth will be accompanied by the recovery of the global economy after the crisis and an increase in demand for new and more efficient aircraft. According to the current 2011 market review, by 2029 the market capacity will be 30,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft.
Table 10. Future market value (at 2009 prices) and aircraft deliveries by region by 2029
| Region | Market value of deliveries in billions of dollars | Aircraft deliveries, pcs. |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Asia | 1 320 | 10 320 |
| North America | 700 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 800 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 390 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 210 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 90 | 960 |
| Africa | 80 | 710 |
| Total | 3 590 | 30 900 |
The table shows that in the long term, the volume passenger traffic will increase by 5.3% per year due to economic growth in regions with different patterns of aircraft demand. The fastest growing segment of the global market will continue to be narrow-body aircraft, thanks to the rapid growth of low-cost airlines, the development of new markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia and continued volatility in fuel prices. The growth rate of the narrow-body aircraft segment has outpaced the wide-body segment over the past ten years. This gap will continue to widen as older aircraft are phased out of the airline fleet.
The highest growth rates are observed in the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the undisputed leader.
Today, this region provides about 1/3 of the world's air transportation. As a result of the growth of this market, by 2029 the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 43% of inbound, outbound and domestic traffic. China alone will need 4,300 new airliners over the next 20 years.
Local airlines will also be the most active buyers of wide-body aircraft, generating about 40% of total demand.
Another dynamic market is the Middle East, which has seen one of the highest air traffic growth rates in recent years. Middle East airlines have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of their geographic location, the demographics of the region, the acquisition of modern aircraft, and well-thought-out investment and business development plans. To the Middle East for the period 2011-2029. 2340 aircraft will be delivered.
The following table provides more detailed data on the distribution of deliveries of different types of airliners by major regions.
Table 11. Aircraft Deliveries by Region by Size, 2011-2029
| Region | Regional (pcs.) | With one pass (pcs.) | With two passes (pcs.) | Large (pcs.) | Total (pcs.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific-Asian region | 470 | 6 710 | 2 840 | 300 | 10 320 |
| North America | 800 | 5 180 | 1 180 | 40 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 310 | 5 380 | 1 340 | 160 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 70 | 1 100 | 1 000 | 170 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 20 | 1 800 | 350 | 10 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 200 | 570 | 160 | 30 | 960 |
| Africa | 50 | 420 | 230 | 10 | 710 |
| Total | 1 920 | 21 160 | 7 100 | 720 | 30 900 |
5. Increasing competition and the end of the duopoly
Airbus and Boeing's portfolio of firm orders for narrow-body aircraft is now approaching 3,000 units, which is only 16% of the forecast demand for these liners over a twenty-year period. Thus, the world market for long-haul aircraft has all the prerequisites for the emergence of at least one more major player, which, under certain circumstances, may well press the giants of the world aircraft industry. The duopoly is slowly coming to an end. Of all the aircraft manufacturers in the world, the challenge to the "Big Two" - Airbus and Boeing - was the first to be thrown by Canadians. Five years ago, Bombardier made the decision to start developing the C-Series narrow-body aircraft, designed to carry 110-130 passengers. Initially, the implementation of this project was hampered by the intractability of aircraft engine manufacturers, who, according to some experts, being under pressure from Airbus and Boeing, did not show a desire to create new engine modifications specifically for the new Bombardier aircraft. They motivated their decision by the narrowness of the sales market. But thanks to the efforts of the Canadian authorities and the position of Pratt & Whitney Canada, as well as the changing market situation, this problem was eventually resolved. Having received financial support from the province of Quebec, Pratt & Whitney nevertheless developed a new family of Pure Power engines. These are exactly the units that Irkut will use on its MS-21. But unlike the MS-21 program, the C-Series project has already gone more than half way. In the middle of last year, Bombardier presented working drawings of the SC100 test aircraft, and the final design of the left fuselage skin was shown at the Saint-Laurent plant in Montreal. Now at this enterprise, the installation of composite panels on the tail section of the liner is already in full swing.
The new aircraft should take to the air in 2012, and the first deliveries of the liner to airlines are scheduled for 2013. But, despite all the advantages of the new liners, Bombardier still cannot boast of a large portfolio of orders for them: Canadians have only 90 firm contracts for the purchase of the SC100 and the same number of options. The main customers of these aircraft are the Lufthansa Group, the Irish leasing company LCI and the American Republic Holdings. But Bombardier pins its main hopes on the Chinese market. According to the forecasts of the Canadian company, within the next 20 years it will become the second largest market for commercial aviation. To achieve this goal, the company decided to cooperate with Chinese aircraft manufacturing enterprises.
China has its own project for the creation of a mainline narrow-body aircraft - C919. And this project is nothing but China's long-term plan to destroy the Airbus and Boeing duopoly. The name of the model and its digital code for the Chinese have a great symbolic meaning. The first number "9" can be interpreted as "a long time to overcome the difficult path", and "19" means that the first Chinese long-haul aircraft will be able to carry 190 passengers. In addition to the basic version, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has begun designing two more models - for 156 and 168 passengers.
Within a few months, COMAC expects to complete a general technical project aircraft and select suppliers of all key systems. This process has been actively going on for the last year and a half.
COMAC plans that the first flight of the C919 should take place in 2014, and the commercial operation of the liner will begin in 2016. In total, the Chinese intend to produce 2,500 new aircraft within 20 years. True, COMAC has not yet paid firm orders for the C919. But there is no doubt that they will appear in the near future.
The expansion of three new manufacturers of long-haul aircraft to the market at once forced Airbus and Boeing to begin full-scale preparations to repel the attack. Airbus has decided to launch a remotorization program for the A320 family, which, after being equipped with new engines, will be called NEO. The European concern intends to invest about 1 billion euros in this project. It is planned to install all the same engines of the LEAP-X and PurePower families on new aircraft. Moreover, Airbus is going to equip its upgraded airliners with new wingtips, which will further reduce fuel consumption by 3-4%. Thus, the total fuel savings will be about 18%. The design of the A320 NEO airframe is 95% similar to the currently operated aircraft of this family. The European concern will have to strengthen only the wing and pylons. The remotorized aircraft will hit the market as early as 2016 and will cost just $6 million more than their predecessors. In total, Airbus is going to sell about 4,000 A320 NEOs. And it is not excluded that this plan will be fulfilled sooner or later. In a month and a half of sales, Airbus has already acquired three major customers. The launch customer for the A320 NEO was Virgin America, which signed a contract for the purchase of 30 aircraft. India's IndiGo and Malaysia's AirAsia soon followed suit with tentative agreements to purchase more than 200 new aircraft. This sent EADS (the parent company of Airbus) shares up 5% on the day. The company's management is confident that the residual value of the existing A320 models will not suffer much, but the newly minted competitors of the European concern will have a hard time.
Boeing considered the launch of the NEO project a belated response to its Next Generation family of aircraft, which have been in production for more than a decade. At the same time, Boeing intends to create a new family of aircraft in the near future to replace the existing versions of the Boeing 737 NG. The company understands Airbus's expectations from the release of the new NEO model, but does not see the need for such liners, the company's strategy, in accordance with the expectations of its customers, is aimed at designing a new aircraft.
The Brazilian Embraer is also considering the possibility of creating a new mainline aircraft for 110-130 passengers. The company is waiting for Boeing to make a final decision on the release of its new airliner, and even then it will consider whether they should take on a competing project.
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The modern aviation industry is a global network of thousands of specialized suppliers of various components and manufacturing services located around the world, incl. and in Russia.
The current state of the aviation industry market is characterized by a stage of stabilization. It is characterized by an established mature market for the products of the relevant industry. This means that the aviation industry market is segmented:
- medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft;
- medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft;
- regional jets;
- local planes.
An important feature of the state of the civil airliner market today is the continuous increase in the role of innovation to achieve success: a change in the situation in the external environment requires a review of the role and place of innovation in the activities of companies. An analysis of the development trend of the world market in the 20th century revealed the main feature: the development of the market is a continuous increase in volatility, instability and unpredictability.
The basis of the development strategies of the world's leading civil aircraft manufacturers is the continuous technological improvement of their products and the reduction of the operating costs of the proposed aircraft models, including fuel consumption and repair and maintenance costs, as well as the development of deep and long-term relationships with airlines by providing them with comprehensive support in operation. , modernization and renewal of the aircraft fleet. At the present stage, the range of products manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, as well as Embraer and Bombardier, is largely similar when compared in terms of such characteristics as the size, range and cost of the aircraft.
The American concern Boeing raised its forecast for the growth of the market for new passenger aircraft. On Thursday in London, the company released its annual Civil Aviation Market Outlook (Current Market Outlook), estimating the total cost of required new aircraft at $5.2 trillion. The concern predicts demand in the next 20 years for 36,770 new aircraft. The previous forecast was about 35,000 aircraft worth $4.8 trillion.
"This is a strong and stable market," said VP of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “With the introduction of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft, the growth in air travel is being driven by customers who want to be able to fly where they want, at any given time.”
Demand is boosted this year by the narrow-body aircraft market, which is forecast to be the fastest growing and most dynamic segment due to continued entry into the low-cost airline market. This segment will require 25,680 new aircraft worth $2.56 trillion, or 70% of projected demand.
“Given the staggering forecast for orders and deliveries, we see 160-passenger aircraft as the backbone of the narrow-body market,” said Tinseth. - This market, of course, tends to this dimension, which allows you to combine operational efficiency with the flexibility of the route network. The Next-Generation 737-800 and the new 737 MAX 8 aircraft offer our customers the highest revenue potential in this category.”
Boeing's main competitor, the European airline Airbus, is also betting on the narrow-body market. Sales of the flagship A321 in the narrow-body aircraft segment grew by 20% and now account for about half of the group's total narrow-body aircraft volume.
The demand for other types of aircraft will also increase. Forecast for sales in the segment of regional liners increased by 25% to $100 billion, or 2490 units. In 2013, the company predicted the volume of deliveries of regional liners in the amount of $80 billion, or 2020 units.
Sales will also increase in the segments of small wide-body and medium wide-body aircraft. At the same time, the number of orders in the segment of small wide-body aircraft, despite the growth in the market volume, will decrease from 4530 to 4520 units.
Unlike the small and medium wide-body aircraft segment, the market for large wide-body aircraft with more than 400 seats will shrink, Boeing analysts predict. The concern expects a reduction in sales from $280 billion to $240 billion, and the total number of aircraft sold will be reduced from 760 to 620 units. According to Boeing estimates, the capacity of a medium wide-body airliner for two aisles in the next 20 years will increase by 20 seats, narrow-body - by 10. Aircraft will become longer, aisles - narrower, the distance between seats will decrease.
Over the next two decades, the market for new aircraft will gradually become more geographically balanced. At the same time, the Asia-Pacific region will become the main driver for market growth.
In the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific market, including China, will lead in terms of the total number of aircraft supplied to the region. According to Boeing analysts, in 2033 the total size of the aircraft fleet of the Asia-Pacific countries will grow from the current 5,470 to 15,220 aircraft. The CIS market will also grow noticeably. In the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operated in the CIS will grow from 1180 to 1820 units.
In the near future, the American airline company plans to present a new generation of the medium wide-body Boeing-787-9, which is 7 m longer than the current top model Dreamliner 787-8 and can accommodate 40 more passengers. The aircraft should be presented to the general public for the first time early next week at the Farnborough Air Show. Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, will also introduce a new long-haul aircraft, the A350, with deliveries scheduled for late 2014.
The aviation industry as an industry was formed in the early twentieth century. By 1910-12, in many countries there were several enterprises involved in the production of aircraft. Interest in the industry arose during the time of world wars, in particular, the Second World War, when air supremacy became one of the determining factors in a particular battle. After 1945, the industry continued to grow rapidly, during this period, paying more attention to civil aviation. By the end of the 80s, the aviation industry approached the modern model and then practically did not change its appearance. Currently, several leading countries of the aviation industry have formed in this sector, holding their positions.
Modern leaders - what are their features
Currently, the world leadership in the aviation industry belongs to several states, including: the USA, Russia, the EU and Brazil. These countries have the largest number factories and plants operating in this industry. Some companies within the state can afford to produce single parts, but all of them eventually go to larger enterprises that form the basis of the national aircraft industry.
The peculiarities of the leading companies in the leading countries of the aviation industry is the fact that they all cooperate with the state. If we are talking about civil aviation, then this is servicing major carriers, national flights, and if we are talking about military aviation, it is meeting the needs of the armed forces.
Leading companies in the civil aviation industry
Civil aircraft industry is the most costly group, which includes only large enterprises with a narrow specialization of the national or international level.
In the civil aircraft industry today, two large corporations are leading:
- Boeing (American company);
- Airbus (United Corporation of the EU);
- United Aviation Corporation of Russia.
There are no enterprises of similar scale in other countries. A key feature of these companies is the dispersal of production throughout the country or several countries (EU). This approach allows you to sharpen production at one plant for the production of one part, drag factories to resources and, therefore, minimize production costs. In addition, these companies were able to appear only thanks to the merger of the giants. So, for example, the UAC includes several large enterprises "Su", "Mig", "Il", "Tu", "Yak", focused on general production.
Other major aviation companies in the world are: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, United Technologies, Textron (USA).
China is likely to become one of the leading aircraft manufacturers in the near future, but today its production cannot yet compete with the world's giants.
Military aviation
In the military sector, the leaders of the aviation industry look different. The following brands fall into this category:
- Su (made in Russia);
- Mig (Russia);
- Panavia Tornado (Germany);
- Eurofighter Typhoon (produced by the European Union);
- Boeing (combined US production).
In this sector, it is rather difficult to determine leadership between brands, since companies producing such equipment are reluctant to advertise their own sales. However, we can say with confidence that in this sector the top three remain unchanged: the US, the European Union and Russia. Interesting developments in this industry also belong to Israel, Canada, China and some other countries, but they are produced in a much more modest volume.
